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Centre for Human Rights Research and Development

CHRRD RESEARCH REVIEW N^o 3

Nigerian Demographic Dynamics in a Global Context

CONTENTS SUMMARY

Mashood Erubami and Ian R. Young

OCTOBER 2003

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OUTLINE

Overview... 4

Summary Points.. 4

Setting the Scene. 5

Continental Population Trends: 0 C.E. to 2050 C.E. 7

Simon Kuznets and the United Nations on the “African Population Explosion”. 7

Angus Maddison: Extending Continental Population Data Back Two Millennia.. 8

Plot of Continental Populations Over Two Millennia (Angus Maddison; United Nations). 9

“Medium”, “High”, “Low”, “Constant Fertility” Projection Variants: The UN’s Assumptions. 10

Nigerian and African Demographic Dynamics in a Global Context: 1950-2050. 11

UN Medium Variant Projections: 15 Most Populous Nations, 2000 - 2050. 11

Vital Statistics: Crude Birth and Death Rates per 1,000 population for Six Regions & Countries, 1950-2050. 11

Plot of Nigerian and World Birth and Death Rates, 1950 - 2050. 12

Infant Mortality Rates for Selected African and Asian Countries, 1950-2050. 13

Plot of Infant Mortality Rates for Nine African and Asian Regions, 1950-2050. 14

Annual Population Growth to 2050 for West African Nations. 14

Plot of Population Growth Rates for West African Nations, 1950-2050. 15

Plot of Population Growth Rates for Selected Nations in the South, 1950-2050. 15

Plot of Continental Population Growth Rates, 1950-2050.